THE IMPACT OF THE CHINA–KYRGYZSTAN–UZBEKISTAN RAILWAY ON UZBEKISTAN’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: MECHANISMS, EFFECTS, AND POLICY RESPONSES
Keywords:
transnational project, economic efficiency, railway system, costs, economic growth, regional development, industrial development, regional integration.Abstract
As a flagship project of cross - border connectivity under the Belt and Road
Initiative, the construction and operation of the China - Kyrgyzstan - Uzbekistan Railway
provides a strategic opportunity for Uzbekistan, a double - landlocked country, to break through
geographical constraints and achieve economic transformation. Based on the theories of
infrastructure economics and regional integration, this paper constructs an analytical
framework of "transport efficiency improvement - trade cost reduction - value chain
reconstruction". Combining the economic data of Uzbekistan in 2024, the calculation results of
the Asian Development Bank and typical industrial cases, it systematically analyzes the
influence mechanism and potential effects of the railway on Uzbekistan's macro - economy,
industrial structure, regional development and foreign cooperation. The research finds that the
railway will shorten the freight time between China and Uzbekistan by more than 40%, reduce
trade costs by 12% - 18%, and boost Uzbekistan's annual GDP growth rate by 1.2 - 1.8
percentage points; promote the agglomeration of advantageous industries such as textiles and
agriculture, and accelerate the development of emerging industries such as new energy and
logistics; strengthen the hub functions of regions along the line such as Andijan Oblast and
promote regional economic balance; and deepen the integration of industrial chains between Uzbekistan and China and other Central Asian countries. At the same time, the project faces
challenges such as geopolitical coordination, insufficient supporting facilities and institutional
connection. Therefore, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions such as
building a tripartite coordination mechanism, improving the logistics hub network and
optimizing the business environment. The research can provide theoretical supplements for
understanding the economic effects of cross - border infrastructure and offer decision - making
references for Uzbekistan to achieve high - quality development by leveraging the railway.
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